Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)10.813.0+2.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)15.97.4−8.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael CarterRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Javonte WilliamsRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)15.831.3+15.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler GoodsonRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.51.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler AllgeierRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.812.9+6.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik DavisRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brian RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)6.125.7+19.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)16.736.7+20.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)22.127.7+5.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.94.5−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Emari DemercadoRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.61.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.23.3+2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.01.6−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.73.1−4.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4MarShawn LloydRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)7.09.9+2.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Phil MafahRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kaleb JohnsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.22.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.828.0+19.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nicholas SingletonRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.50.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeremiyah LoveRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.96.5−6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Michael BurtonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)14.614.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeeJay DallasRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.30.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)6.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.49.1+5.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)10.99.9−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.00.1−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)2.87.7+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)11.26.5−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)4.82.1−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chase EdmondsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Andrew BeckRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.97.2+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Devin SingletaryRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)7.410.6+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.03.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Myles GaskinRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)5.819.6+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.61.3−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W18J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)12.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.53.6+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)16.65.8−10.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.30.0−2.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W18DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Adam PrenticeRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.06.7+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Kene NwangwuRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)5.01.8−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)15.135.3+20.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)4.65.6+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)18.64.8−13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)3.04.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.31.5−18.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.36.1−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.21.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)7.22.9−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)8.06.4−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)16.29.4−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.00.3−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.12.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)13.717.3+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Eric GrayRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)8.72.7−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 19 · 1,880 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse