Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.4 | 28.4 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 18.8 | 17.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.4 | 0.2 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.3 | 20.0 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.5 | 23.6 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.0 | 12.2 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.6 | 26.1 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 17.0 | 12.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.1 | 28.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 23.7 | 22.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | 21.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.5 | 14.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.7 | 16.5 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.2 | 15.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 17.1 | 13.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 18.3 | 19.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.0 | 13.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 20.9 | 30.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.7 | 15.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.9 | 26.6 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.5 | 16.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 18.6 | 24.0 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.1 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.8 | 23.5 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 17.4 | 1.7 | −15.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.0 | 10.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 18.1 | 28.8 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.7 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.8 | 7.8 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.3 | 8.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.3 | 12.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 19.7 | 29.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 20.5 | 23.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.4 | 12.0 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.2 | 17.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 13.6 | 17.5 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 24.6 | 23.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.0 | 18.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 20.6 | 22.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 18.0 | 4.8 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.8 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.9 | 19.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.2 | 9.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 14.6 | 17.7 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.5 | 15.7 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.9 | 9.2 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.3 | 17.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.3 | 13.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.2 | 28.6 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.1 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.3 | 15.5 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.0 | 22.3 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.3 | 19.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.8 | 18.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.1 | 22.2 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.6 | 15.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.2 | 24.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 8.6 | 13.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 17.3 | 12.4 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.8 | 6.2 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.3 | 29.8 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.2 | 11.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 19.5 | 22.2 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 7.2 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 5.1 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 24.3 | 34.4 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 19.8 | 21.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 16.7 | 20.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse