Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 3.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 19.0 | 8.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 30.9 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 22.2 | 16.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 7.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 15.3 | 12.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 15.4 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 15.7 | 6.8 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 17.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | -0.3 | −19.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 31.8 | +20.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 12.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 15.4 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 9.7 | 13.1 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 6.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 18.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 21.0 | 16.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 22.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 19.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | 4.9 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 15.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 13.7 | 10.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.6 | 14.7 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 12.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 27.7 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 26.3 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 12.1 | 20.1 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 12.1 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 30.7 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 13.7 | 26.3 | +12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 17.2 | 24.8 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 22.6 | 10.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 23.6 | 25.6 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 19.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 20.0 | 14.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 20.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 21.6 | 27.7 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 21.2 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8) | 18.2 | 15.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 4.4 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 22.7 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 18.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6) | 10.8 | 6.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 27.2 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 9.2 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.1 | 24.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 1.1 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 7.8 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 21.2 | 23.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 24.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 20.5 | 25.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.6) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 21.2 | 23.8 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 12.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 11.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 27.4 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −1.1) | 18.5 | 11.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 8.6 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 22.2 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 20.0 | 27.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 10.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 22.4 | 17.7 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 17.5 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 12.0 | 20.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 21.1 | 31.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 15.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 14.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.6 | 19.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 11.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 11.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 13.4 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 8.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 13.8 | 5.9 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse