Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.2 | 2.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 7.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.4 | 3.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.5 | 3.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.6 | 6.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.9 | 8.3 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.8 | 7.1 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.9 | 32.5 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.6 | 2.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.6 | 1.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 5.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 20.4 | 13.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.9 | 8.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.6 | 0.3 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.9 | 31.0 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse