Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W3Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3KhaDarel HodgeWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)14.515.4+0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John Metchie IIIWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.09.9+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen TolbertWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ryan MillerWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.83.5+0.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.312.3+11.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.13.8−8.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.011.1−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ricky PearsallWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.93.7−12.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.98.0+6.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3De'Zhaun StriblingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BellWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.810.7+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kevin Coleman Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.51.3−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 125 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse