Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.4 | 0.0 | −12.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse