Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
RB	349–510–87	40.6%	38.2%
TE	371–558–194	39.9%	39.1%
QB	198–194–19	50.5%	49.6%
WR	479–778–89	38.1%	36.3%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	716–1049–204	40.6%	39.1%
0.25–0.5	651–959–183	40.4%	38.7%
0.5–1	29–31–2	48.3%	48.3%
1+	1–1	50.0%	49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Starters out on defense calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Odell Beckham Jr.WR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Nick VannettTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Curtis SamuelWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim PatrickWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	3.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Pharaoh BrownTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	James ConnerRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	12.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	David MooreWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	3.5	0.0	−3.5	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Zay JonesWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Trent SherfieldWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Allen LazardWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	3.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Steven SimsWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hunter RenfrowWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Mecole HardmanWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Miles SandersRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darius SlaytonWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	7.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	A.J. BrownWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh JacobsRB GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	10.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Andre BaccelliaWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dan ChisenaWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Sean McKeonTE IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah HodginsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Gabe DavisWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	4.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Harrison BryantTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Colby ParkinsonTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josiah DeguaraTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim JonesWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brevin JordanTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	2.9	2.3	−0.6	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Quintin MorrisTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)	1.4	0.0	−1.4	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Simi FehokoWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brandon SmithWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Austin TrammellWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	20.6	5.7	−14.8	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Michael CarterRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	7.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Britain CoveyWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bam KnightRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	4.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	0.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	John FitzPatrickTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brittain BrownRB CHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	2.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tay MartinWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Ronnie RiversRB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik DavisRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	3.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Julius ChestnutRB TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)	0.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Will MalloryTE IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	1.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Travis VokolekTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik HeathWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier GipsonWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Charlie JonesWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.3	0.0	−1.3	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Andrei IosivasWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyrell ShaversWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Emari DemercadoRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik CunninghamWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jalin HyattWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Luke MusgraveTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jayden ReedWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	5.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tejhaun PalmerWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jalen CokerWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	12.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier WeaverWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)	0.5	0.0	−0.5	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tip ReimanTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Trey BensonRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	4.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Savion WilliamsWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Phil MafahRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Nick KallerupTE SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)	0.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Kalel MullingsRB TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Dominic LovettWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	11.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Quentin SkinnerWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dalen CambreWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Beaux CollinsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Nate CarterRB ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Arian SmithWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jaydon BlueRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	4.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Drake DabneyTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dalevon CampbellWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	J. Michael SturdivantWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	2.1	0.0	−2.1	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	C.J. WilliamsWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik McClainWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.0	0.0	−1.0	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Marlin KleinTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Omar Cooper Jr.WR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Brandin CooksWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	4.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	C.J. HamRB MIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Tyreek HillWR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	11.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	David MooreWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	2.6	0.0	−2.6	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Russell GageWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Malik TurnerWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Hunter RenfrowWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	4.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Drew LockQB SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.2)	14.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Dan ChisenaWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Lawrence CagerTE WAS	Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Dee EskridgeWR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Sal CannellaTE CLE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Jerome FordRB CLE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)	4.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC

Page 1 of 30 · 2,909 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse