Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.2)16.59.7−6.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Geno SmithQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.2)13.78.8−4.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sterling ShepardWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Austin HooperTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)3.31.9−1.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.2)17.310.4−6.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kendrick BourneWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.70.0−6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.78.3−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)11.62.9−8.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Braxton BerriosWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DJ MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)12.12.7−9.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)22.218.5−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.2)16.813.3−3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)12.76.3−6.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Foster MoreauTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)3.61.1−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Greg DortchWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.2)16.47.9−8.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.2)14.813.1−1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)15.97.4−8.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darnell MooneyWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)4.70.0−4.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.2)14.513.5−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)19.815.5−4.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)8.37.7−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.4)18.113.1−5.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah MooreWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.81.3−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler GoodsonRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.51.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)18.95.7−13.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)15.610.1−5.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)8.04.1−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Skyy MooreWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.90.8−3.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Daniel BellingerTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)1.91.2−0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)13.37.7−5.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dontayvion WicksWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)14.64.8−9.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)15.52.0−13.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.03.5−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.01.6−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)3.50.0−3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.73.1−4.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)8.32.2−6.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)12.89.1−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kaleb JohnsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.22.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)5.03.5−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Makai LemonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)8.45.7−2.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nicholas SingletonRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.50.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeremiyah LoveRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.96.5−6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Michael BurtonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3KhaDarel HodgeWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)8.53.1−5.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeeJay DallasRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.30.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)2.61.9−0.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen TolbertWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WillisQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.2)11.510.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)8.66.2−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.2)15.913.6−2.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.13.8−8.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.011.1−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.93.7−12.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)4.93.4−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.2)11.59.4−2.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)10.99.9−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.00.1−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nate BoerkircherTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kevin Coleman Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.51.3−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)12.04.2−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.71.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.61.5−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8)20.30.7−19.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)12.910.6−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)11.87.9−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.61.4−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.24.9−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)11.26.5−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)4.82.1−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.21.6−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)3.50.0−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)6.73.3−3.4❌Backtest ·

Page 1 of 22 · 2,123 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse