Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jonnu SmithTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0) | 2.9 | 2.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Nick MuseTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 4.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 9.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tanner KoziolTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Nate BoerkircherTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0) | 2.0 | 2.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Mike EvansWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 12.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 14.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0) | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 2.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 12.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 17.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 11.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 15.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 9.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 19.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 1.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 19.2 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 1.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 1.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 7.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 1.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 2.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 21.3 | 20.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 8.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 12.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 10.7 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 7.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 12.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 2.1 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 20.6 | 20.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 7.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse