Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
RB	349–510–87	40.6%	38.2%
TE	371–558–194	39.9%	39.1%
QB	198–194–19	50.5%	49.6%
WR	479–778–89	38.1%	36.3%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	716–1049–204	40.6%	39.1%
0.25–0.5	651–959–183	40.4%	38.7%
0.5–1	29–31–2	48.3%	48.3%
1+	1–1	50.0%	49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Starters out on defense calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Jameis WinstonQB NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)	13.5	18.0	+4.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler HigbeeTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	7.7	11.7	+4.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tony PollardRB TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)	10.8	13.0	+2.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tee HigginsWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	16.3	26.7	+10.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Joe BurrowQB CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.2)	20.4	23.7	+3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Javonte WilliamsRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	15.8	31.3	+15.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hunter LongTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.7	2.0	+1.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jameson WilliamsWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	12.7	16.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Khalil ShakirWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	9.7	13.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler AllgeierRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	6.8	12.9	+6.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	John Metchie IIIWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	6.7	+1.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Brian RobinsonRB ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)	6.1	25.7	+19.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Romeo DoubsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.4	23.8	+14.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Kyren WilliamsRB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)	16.7	36.7	+20.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bijan RobinsonRB ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)	22.1	27.7	+5.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Michael WilsonWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	14.5	16.5	+2.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	2.9	7.9	+5.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brycen TremayneWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	3.6	5.2	+1.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Brenton StrangeTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)	8.9	16.5	+7.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tucker KraftTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	8.1	16.5	+8.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Roschon JohnsonRB CHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	1.2	3.3	+2.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Elijah HigginsTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	2.6	9.9	+7.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bryce YoungQB CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.2)	18.0	21.5	+3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	C.J. StroudQB HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.2)	18.7	23.1	+4.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik NabersWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	9.2	23.2	+14.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Cade StoverTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	1.4	3.0	+1.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	6.2	15.3	+9.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	MarShawn LloydRB GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	7.0	9.9	+2.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	7.6	8.2	+0.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Drake MayeQB NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.2)	15.7	26.2	+10.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Keon ColemanWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	7.9	23.6	+15.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darius CooperWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	3.1	18.3	+15.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	16.8	45.2	+28.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Kyle MonangaiRB CHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	8.8	28.0	+19.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Efton Chism IIIWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	2.2	12.2	+10.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mark RedmanTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	0.2	4.9	+4.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Matthew GoldenWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	10.5	11.7	+1.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Isaac TeSlaaWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	5.7	13.5	+7.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Dohnte MeyersWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	3.9	15.2	+11.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malachi FieldsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	6.7	13.2	+6.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh CameronWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	3.1	6.2	+3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Marcus MariotaQB WAS	Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.2)	10.7	20.4	+9.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Eric SaubertTE SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	1.9	8.3	+6.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	14.5	15.4	+0.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Trevor LawrenceQB JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)	18.1	19.8	+1.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	John Metchie IIIWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	3.0	9.9	+6.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Brock PurdyQB SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)	20.2	31.3	+11.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Daniel BellingerTE TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	1.8	3.6	+1.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Ryan MillerWR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	2.8	3.5	+0.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Brycen TremayneWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	1.3	12.3	+11.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	AJ BarnerTE SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	6.5	11.9	+5.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Jordan WatkinsWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.9	8.0	+6.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Raheim SandersRB CLE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)	3.4	9.1	+5.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)	8.2	24.1	+15.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Chris BellWR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	3.8	10.7	+6.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2025 W18	Josh JohnsonQB WAS	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −1.4)	9.9	15.7	+5.9	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Matthew StaffordQB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)	22.3	26.7	+4.3	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	C.J. HamRB MIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)	2.8	7.7	+4.9	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Jacoby BrissettQB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)	13.0	15.6	+2.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Johnny MundtTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)	1.7	2.6	+0.9	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Samaje PerineRB CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	6.7	8.2	+1.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Eric SaubertTE SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)	1.7	3.0	+1.3	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 23:30 UTC
2025 W18	Evan EngramTE DEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)	6.7	7.5	+0.8	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Andrew BeckRB NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)	1.9	7.2	+5.3	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Devin SingletaryRB NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)	7.4	10.6	+3.2	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Ty JohnsonRB BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	5.8	19.6	+13.8	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Drew SampleTE CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)	2.5	4.7	+2.1	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)	2.3	18.2	+15.9	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Reggie GilliamRB BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	0.5	3.6	+3.1	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Gabe DavisWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)	4.9	15.1	+10.2	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Justin JeffersonWR MIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)	16.3	18.4	+2.1	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Quintin MorrisTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)	1.3	7.5	+6.2	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	John BatesTE WAS	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)	1.8	9.3	+7.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Noah GrayTE KC	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)	3.3	6.0	+2.7	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Jaret PattersonRB LAC	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)	3.0	6.7	+3.7	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Rhamondre StevensonRB NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)	15.1	35.3	+20.2	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Khalil HerbertRB NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)	4.6	5.6	+1.0	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Trevor LawrenceQB JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)	21.9	23.3	+1.4	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Tyler BadieRB DEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)	3.0	4.6	+1.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Jalen NailorWR MIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)	6.8	7.9	+1.1	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Alec PierceWR IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	8.4	29.2	+20.8	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Daniel BellingerTE NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)	7.2	11.8	+4.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Cade OttonTE TB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)	6.0	22.4	+16.4	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 20:00 UTC
2025 W18	Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)	13.7	17.3	+3.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 23:30 UTC
2025 W18	Michael WilsonWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	12.3	20.9	+8.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Parker WashingtonWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)	12.2	19.7	+7.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)	5.9	15.3	+9.4	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)	5.2	6.8	+1.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Ben SimsTE MIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)	1.3	2.8	+1.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Brycen TremayneWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	1.4	4.7	+3.3	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 20:00 UTC
2025 W18	Dalton KincaidTE BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)	6.1	7.8	+1.7	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Brenton StrangeTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)	9.2	17.2	+8.0	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Josh DownsWR IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	7.1	9.6	+2.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Bryce YoungQB CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)	13.9	16.5	+2.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 20:00 UTC
2025 W18	Zach CharbonnetRB SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)	10.2	18.7	+8.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 23:30 UTC
2025 W18	Jack WestoverTE NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)	0.3	1.0	+0.7	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)	15.4	27.9	+12.5	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Ryan FlournoyWR DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	6.5	11.8	+5.3	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 16:30 UTC
2025 W18	Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)	4.2	7.4	+3.2	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-04 19:55 UTC
2025 W18	Jalen CokerWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	8.1	16.7	+8.6	✅	Backtest · 2026-01-03 20:00 UTC

Page 1 of 15 · 1,452 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse