Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.9 | 9.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 2.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.6 | 9.5 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.8 | 3.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.7 | 22.1 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.6 | 2.1 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.6 | 10.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.3 | 18.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.2 | 22.1 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 13.5 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | 17.4 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 1.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.8 | 13.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.7 | 18.1 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.7 | 4.0 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.5 | 5.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.1 | 2.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 16.5 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 7.2 | 4.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 7.4 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.6 | 15.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.1 | 23.4 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 12.3 | 6.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 0.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.4 | 1.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 12.6 | 11.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 7.9 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.8 | 21.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse