Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 14.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.8 | 12.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob HarrisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.8 | 3.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kwamie Lassiter IIWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 24.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.4 | 10.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.4 | 10.3 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 14.9 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.5 | 5.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | 21.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Colton DowellWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Shedrick JacksonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.0 | 1.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.6 | 19.5 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.6 | 11.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 14.3 | 5.7 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 9.5 | 5.6 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.5 | 1.4 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.3 | 1.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | 3.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.3 | 4.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 11.2 | 2.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.0 | 22.7 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.3 | 0.3 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.2 | 15.8 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.5 | 5.1 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 8.2 | 12.5 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacob HarrisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 5.0 | 2.2 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.5 | 5.6 | −11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | 1.9 | −4.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.3 | 1.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 2.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 19.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.6 | 15.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.4 | 23.2 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.0 | 5.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse