Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 24.5 | 5.2 | −19.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 11.9 | 0.0 | −11.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse