Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.5 | 6.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.7 | 2.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.4 | 5.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | 6.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.4 | 7.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.7 | 10.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.4 | 12.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.1 | 22.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.7 | 6.2 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.1 | 7.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.0 | 4.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.1 | 2.7 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.8 | 3.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.1 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.4 | 0.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 1.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.3 | 0.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | 3.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.1 | 10.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 13.8 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 10.6 | 12.5 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.2 | 14.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse