Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.3 | 4.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | 10.8 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.6 | 20.5 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.3 | 9.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 6.0 | 4.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.8 | 9.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 10.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 3.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.8 | 3.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 6.5 | 5.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.0 | 3.9 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 9.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.4 | 10.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.3 | 2.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.4 | 0.0 | −13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.2 | 7.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.6 | 23.0 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 17.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 16.4 | 14.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 3.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse