Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.0 | 13.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.8 | 5.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.5 | 2.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 1.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 7.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.5 | 3.9 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.5 | 4.7 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 22.0 | 12.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.2 | 2.7 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.9 | 4.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 5.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.2 | 9.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 4.1 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.7 | 9.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 7.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.0 | 10.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.7 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.8 | 7.8 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.4 | 14.7 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 7.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 6.8 | 1.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 1.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.3 | 8.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.3 | 12.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.5 | 2.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse