Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 12.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.7 | -4.4 | −18.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.6 | 11.6 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.8 | 9.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 10.9 | 5.9 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 13.0 | 9.8 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.5 | 1.1 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.8 | 7.3 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.0 | 1.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.1 | 13.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 18.6 | 14.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 7.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.2 | 2.8 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.6 | 4.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | 2.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.2 | 4.3 | −12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.7 | 2.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.4 | 5.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.4 | 12.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.7 | 6.2 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.1 | 7.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.1 | 2.7 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.8 | 3.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.4 | 0.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.3 | 0.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 17.2 | 15.6 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.4 | 2.1 | −13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | -2.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.3 | 4.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.9 | 0.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.8 | 2.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.8 | 16.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 4.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.7 | 10.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.1 | 5.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 18.8 | 17.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse