Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 3.6 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 15.2 | 21.9 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 15.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 21.7 | 20.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 0.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 21.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 20.0 | 23.1 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 19.0 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 1.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 18.5 | 25.9 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 3.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 0.0 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Maurice AlexanderWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 2.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 3.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 3.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 20.9 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 7.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 14.0 | 7.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 5.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 14.8 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 1.9 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 9.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse