Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.94.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)10.93.6−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.01.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Corey KinerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.40.2−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.712.0+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.43.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.58.5+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.63.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Robbie OuztsRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)16.325.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.12.5−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)13.58.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.127.8+17.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.8)15.421.9+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)13.817.1+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.815.5+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.917.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.68.9+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)12.19.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.61.6−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Brandin CooksWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.91.9+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.01.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.35.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.616.2+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)17.022.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.210.3+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)18.719.2+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)10.115.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.526.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)17.610.6−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.53.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)7.35.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.48.0+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.00.2−9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.55.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.51.6−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.41.4−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)9.84.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)7.912.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.86.9−12.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.71.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.74.9+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.95.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)13.68.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.31.4−9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)14.44.8−9.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 7 of 32 · 3,192 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse