Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Philip RiversQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh JohnsonQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −1.4) | 9.9 | 15.7 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 26.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 2.8 | 7.7 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8) | 20.3 | 0.7 | −19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 15.6 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 2.6 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 7.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 3.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | 7.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 4.9 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 6.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 2.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.8) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 8.8 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 1.9 | 7.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 9.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 7.4 | 10.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 9.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 19.6 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 18.2 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 9.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 10.4 | +2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Lawrence CagerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 3.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 15.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 3.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 5.8 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 18.4 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 1.4 | −16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 32 · 3,192 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse