Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
RB	349–510–87	40.6%	38.2%
TE	371–558–194	39.9%	39.1%
QB	198–194–19	50.5%	49.6%
WR	479–778–89	38.1%	36.3%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	716–1049–204	40.6%	39.1%
0.25–0.5	651–959–183	40.4%	38.7%
0.5–1	29–31–2	48.3%	48.3%
1+	1–1	50.0%	49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Starters out on defense calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Matthew StaffordQB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.2)	16.5	9.7	−6.8	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Geno SmithQB NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.2)	13.7	8.8	−4.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Odell Beckham Jr.WR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jameis WinstonQB NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)	13.5	18.0	+4.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Sterling ShepardWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	3.4	0.0	−3.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Austin HooperTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	3.3	1.9	−1.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Nick VannettTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jared GoffQB DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.4)	20.1	20.5	+0.4	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler HigbeeTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	7.7	11.7	+4.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jacoby BrissettQB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.2)	17.3	10.4	−6.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mo Alie-CoxTE IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	2.2	0.0	−2.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Curtis SamuelWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Kendrick BourneWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	6.7	0.0	−6.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim PatrickWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	3.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Pharaoh BrownTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	James ConnerRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	12.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mack HollinsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	11.7	8.3	−3.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Eric SaubertTE SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)	2.3	0.0	−2.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	David MooreWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	3.5	0.0	−3.5	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jonnu SmithTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	2.9	2.9	−0.0	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Zay JonesWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dalton SchultzTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	11.6	2.9	−8.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Braxton BerriosWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	0.6	0.0	−0.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Trent SherfieldWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Allen LazardWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	3.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	DJ MooreWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	12.1	2.7	−9.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh AllenQB BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)	22.2	18.5	−3.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Sam DarnoldQB SEA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.2)	16.8	13.3	−3.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Steven SimsWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jakobi MeyersWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	12.7	6.3	−6.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Foster MoreauTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	3.6	1.1	−2.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hunter RenfrowWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Mecole HardmanWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Miles SandersRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tony PollardRB TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)	10.8	13.0	+2.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Greg DortchWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	1.5	0.0	−1.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darius SlaytonWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	7.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tom KennedyWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.6	0.0	−1.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	A.J. BrownWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh JacobsRB GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	10.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Daniel JonesQB IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.2)	16.4	7.9	−8.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Andre BaccelliaWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dan ChisenaWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Sean McKeonTE IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah HodginsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Gabe DavisWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	4.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Harrison BryantTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Colby ParkinsonTE LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jordan LoveQB GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.2)	14.8	13.1	−1.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	D'Andre SwiftRB CHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	15.9	7.4	−8.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darnell MooneyWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	4.7	0.0	−4.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josiah DeguaraTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jalen HurtsQB PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.2)	14.5	13.5	−0.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tee HigginsWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	16.3	26.7	+10.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Charlie WoernerTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Joe BurrowQB CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.2)	20.4	23.7	+3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim JonesWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brevin JordanTE HOU	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)	2.9	2.3	−0.6	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Quintin MorrisTE JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)	1.4	0.0	−1.4	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Simi FehokoWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brandon SmithWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Austin TrammellWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	20.6	5.7	−14.8	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Michael CarterRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	7.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	19.8	15.5	−4.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Kyle PittsTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	8.3	7.7	−0.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Trevor LawrenceQB JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.4)	18.1	13.1	−5.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Elijah MooreWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.4	0.0	−2.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh PalmerWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	3.8	1.3	−2.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Javonte WilliamsRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	15.8	31.3	+15.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hunter LongTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	0.7	2.0	+1.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bo MeltonWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	1.9	0.0	−1.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler GoodsonRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	2.5	1.2	−1.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Britain CoveyWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bam KnightRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	4.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jameson WilliamsWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	12.7	16.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Khalil ShakirWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	9.7	13.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler AllgeierRB ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	6.8	12.9	+6.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	0.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Andrew OgletreeTE IND	Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)	1.2	0.0	−1.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC
2026 W4	John FitzPatrickTE GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Nick MuseTE ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)	0.2	0.0	−0.2	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Brittain BrownRB CHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)	2.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tay MartinWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Ronnie RiversRB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik DavisRB DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)	3.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Julius ChestnutRB TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)	0.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	John Metchie IIIWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	6.7	+1.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Garrett WilsonWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	18.9	5.7	−13.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Trey McBrideTE ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)	15.6	10.1	−5.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brian RobinsonRB ATL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)	6.1	25.7	+19.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-05 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Romeo DoubsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.4	23.8	+14.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Kyren WilliamsRB LAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)	16.7	36.7	+20.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jake FergusonTE DAL	Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)	8.0	4.1	−3.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Skyy MooreWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	3.9	0.8	−3.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Daniel BellingerTE TEN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)	1.9	1.2	−0.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC

Page 1 of 3 · 266 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse