Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W4 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 9.8 | 33.6 | +23.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.6 | 10.3 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.3 | 22.9 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | 11.9 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 8.3 | 9.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.3 | 23.1 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | 3.7 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 10.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | 6.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | 3.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.0 | 16.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.3 | 11.0 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.6 | 27.9 | +17.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 8 of 8 · 716 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse