Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.3 | 11.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | -0.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.1 | 30.0 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 9.8 | 0.0 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 3.6 | 7.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 3.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.6 | 10.5 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.9 | 1.9 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 7.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 5.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan MingoWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.5 | 0.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 10.3 | 2.1 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.0 | 13.9 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 7.4 | 5.6 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 11.1 | 3.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.8 | 0.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 15.0 | 6.2 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.1 | 5.1 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 9.2 | 15.4 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marvin JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.1 | 3.8 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.5 | 1.3 | −10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 14.6 | 12.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.6 | 1.9 | −12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.1 | 15.4 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 13.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 7.9 | 16.3 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 8.9 | 5.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 8.0 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | 17.2 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.2 | 18.6 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse