Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 16.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.9 | 9.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 2.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.3 | 14.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.6 | 2.1 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jack StollTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 15.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.0 | 5.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.7 | 1.5 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.5 | 0.4 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 11.4 | 8.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 1.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 10.2 | 2.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.7 | 4.0 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.9 | 3.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.0 | 1.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.1 | 1.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.5 | 5.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 7.2 | 4.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 12.3 | 6.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 0.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.8 | 2.3 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.4 | 1.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 12.6 | 11.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.5 | 11.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jack StollTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.7 | 3.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.8 | 12.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.8 | 3.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.0 | 0.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.2 | 4.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse