Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 1.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.1 | 9.1 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.1 | 9.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.4 | 4.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.0 | 3.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | 3.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.7 | 11.7 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.0 | 3.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 24.1 | 18.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.9 | 3.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.5 | 11.3 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.1 | 1.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 8.5 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.2 | 2.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 7.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.4 | 3.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.5 | 3.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.6 | 6.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse