Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.4 | 10.7 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marvin JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien HarrisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse