Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 11.3 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 12.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 18.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 5.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 18.7 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 7.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 7.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 1.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 16.2 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 24.5 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 15.0 | 22.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 10.4 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 3.2 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | -1.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 2.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | -0.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.9 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 10.7 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 44.3 | +25.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 18.2 | 31.1 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 6.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 12.1 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 6.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 1.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 21.5 | 18.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 8.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 4.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 0.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 4.5 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse