Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 11.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 10.7 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 12.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 2.1 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 6.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 4.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 7.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 21.7 | 21.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 12.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 8.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 1.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 12.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse