Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)2.87.7+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Andrew BeckRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.97.2+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Devin SingletaryRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)7.410.6+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)5.819.6+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.53.6+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.06.7+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)15.135.3+20.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)4.65.6+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)3.04.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)13.717.3+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)5.915.3+9.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)5.26.8+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.218.7+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)15.427.9+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.925.4+22.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)4.37.8+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.86.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.98.3+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.317.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.59.4+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)14.445.6+31.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)24.528.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Devin SingletaryRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)6.317.0+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)5.47.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)15.221.9+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kene NwangwuRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)0.83.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)14.927.2+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Malik DavisRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.710.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Breece HallRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)10.920.9+10.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)4.05.8+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.35.4+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)9.226.2+17.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.49.5+7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.85.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.922.5+13.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.94.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.58.5+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)17.022.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.55.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.417.8+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)6.613.5+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)7.58.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.913.9+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)4.36.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.612.3+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)10.631.8+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)10.612.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.416.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.018.2+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.05.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.022.6+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)18.231.1+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)19.229.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)18.018.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.38.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)8.815.6+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.530.1+19.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.728.1+19.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)16.417.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)17.318.5+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.26.7+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)10.911.4+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)7.58.7+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)10.914.7+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)10.712.8+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)3.44.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.58.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.214.1+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.88.9+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.811.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)9.515.9+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.422.8+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)24.727.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)12.120.0+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.73.7+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.78.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kenny GainwellRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)9.218.2+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)17.120.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)11.213.2+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Brian RobinsonRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.85.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.813.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.53.6+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)8.026.5+18.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)24.055.4+31.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)8.210.8+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.84.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)16.420.2+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)24.435.1+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)10.613.2+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.515.0+10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Rico DowdleRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)12.115.0+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.014.5+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)18.520.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.49.6+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.310.5+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.87.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)21.230.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)17.218.7+1.5✅Backtest ·

Page 1 of 2 · 166 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse