Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.6 | 2.9 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.7 | 3.5 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 7.5 | 3.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.4 | 1.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.1 | 1.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 3.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.3 | 10.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.1 | 3.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.8 | 1.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.1 | 3.7 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.9 | 4.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 7.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | 2.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.7 | 2.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.7 | 6.2 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse