Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 7.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.4 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 4.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 6.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 3.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 1.6 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 1.4 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 9.8 | 4.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 4.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 3.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 2.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 6.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 6.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 2.8 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 7.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 2.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 5.4 | 2.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.1 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 2.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 1.9 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 2.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 3.7 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 1.7 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 2.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 6 · 558 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse