Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.72.6+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.73.0+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)6.77.5+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)2.54.7+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.37.5+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)1.89.3+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)3.36.0+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)7.211.8+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)6.022.4+16.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.32.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)6.17.8+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)9.217.2+8.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.31.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.45.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)10.925.1+14.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.56.1+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.61.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.21.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.29.8+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.95.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.58.0+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.713.5+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.319.0+15.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.23.8+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)6.27.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.31.8+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)4.317.9+13.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.92.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)8.613.3+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.45.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)10.421.4+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.33.0+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.35.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)10.115.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.53.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.48.0+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)7.912.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.95.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.65.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)13.718.7+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.02.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)4.36.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.225.6+20.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)10.121.6+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.218.7+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)8.924.5+15.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.33.2+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.01.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.145.6+35.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.06.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.04.5+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.95.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.74.6+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)5.820.6+14.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.37.1+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.53.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.212.5+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.12.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.03.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.24.2+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)10.611.3+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.51.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.51.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.73.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.06.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)4.712.6+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)1.02.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Darnell WashingtonTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.76.5+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)7.913.5+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.95.0+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)7.711.3+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.413.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.81.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.85.9+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Pat FreiermuthTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.810.9+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.32.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)6.514.3+7.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)3.14.6+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.811.1+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)10.324.1+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)11.524.7+13.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.11.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.93.0+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)8.911.1+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.55.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.31.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.16.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.99.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.46.4+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.91.5+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)6.48.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.27.2+6.0✅Backtest ·

Page 1 of 4 · 371 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse