Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Sterling ShepardWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kendrick BourneWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.70.0−6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.78.3−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Braxton BerriosWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DJ MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)12.12.7−9.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)12.76.3−6.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Greg DortchWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darnell MooneyWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)4.70.0−4.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)19.815.5−4.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah MooreWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.81.3−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)18.95.7−13.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Skyy MooreWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.90.8−3.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)13.37.7−5.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dontayvion WicksWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)14.64.8−9.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)15.52.0−13.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.03.5−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Makai LemonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)8.45.7−2.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3KhaDarel HodgeWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen TolbertWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.13.8−8.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.011.1−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.93.7−12.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kevin Coleman Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.51.3−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse