Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.62.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)12.112.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.22.5+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.23.4+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.72.5−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.41.8+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)9.59.9+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.01.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.87.7−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.22.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.12.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.38.1−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)9.59.6+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.212.1−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W14John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.97.4+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W13DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)6.56.3−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.411.4−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13LaJohntay WesterWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W12DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)15.314.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W12Xavier GipsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.31.3+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.84.8−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.512.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)2.72.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.92.2+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)12.512.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.57.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.02.1+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.92.9−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.37.5+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Tylan WallaceWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.91.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)21.421.1−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.95.7−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Ryan MillerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.62.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)8.99.0+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)12.012.0+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)10.210.6+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.52.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)11.411.2−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Kameron JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.50.2−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)13.813.8+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)3.73.7+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Tez JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.62.3−0.3pushBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse