Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 18.5 | 21.9 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.5 | 17.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.5 | 8.5 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 13.2 | 19.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.1 | 11.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.0 | 12.1 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 4.5 | 5.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.1 | 1.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.5 | 5.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 11.4 | 12.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 4.9 | 7.0 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.0 | 4.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 18.0 | 14.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.5 | 10.8 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse