Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Alec IngoldRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 36.7 | +20.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Keaton MitchellRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 11.3 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 26.5 | 17.7 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 2.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 11.6 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 3.1 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 13.3 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 14.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Alec IngoldRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 6.5 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | DeeJay DallasRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 21.8 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Keaton MitchellRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | 13.7 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 3.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 5.6 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Max BredesonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Demond ClaiborneRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.1 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 10.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 7.2 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | DeeJay DallasRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 3.0 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Travis EtienneRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 7.1 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 22.9 | 23.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Max BredesonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | CJ DonaldsonRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.2 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 6.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.7 | 2.6 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 12.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 0.3 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.5 | 16.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 11.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 9.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 8 · 747 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse