Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 9.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 14.4 | 20.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 15.7 | 12.7 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 13.0 | 6.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 16.7 | 29.8 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 14.2 | 22.4 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 20.3 | 0.7 | −19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 16.2 | 15.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 21.6 | 22.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 16.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 8.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | 26.9 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 10.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Riley LeonardQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 0.8 | −16.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 11.5 | 21.3 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 14.7 | 19.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 16.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 0.5 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 12.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 20.8 | 26.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 20.0 | 14.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 21.6 | 27.7 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 13.1 | 22.7 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 6.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.1 | 27.4 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.1 | 2.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | 13.7 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | 10.5 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 12.2 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 16.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 19.1 | 18.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 14.7 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 20.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | 21.2 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 12.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 11.8 | 13.9 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 14.4 | 13.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 26.1 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.3 | 12.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 12.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 14.1 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 17.5 | 15.8 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 10.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 12.7 | 11.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 3.8 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.6 | 17.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | 17.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 10.9 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Joe Milton IIIQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.4 | 14.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 10.3 | 6.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 22.9 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.3 | 19.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 14.0 | 13.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 144 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse