Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 11.7 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | David NjokuTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 22.4 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Hayden RucciTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 8.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Patrick HerbertTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 20.2 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | David NjokuTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 3.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Hayden RucciTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 1.9 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler ConklinTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 5.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 3.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Noah FantTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 10.6 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 5.0 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 3.0 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | 1.2 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 12.3 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 7 · 677 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse