Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W8Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA)10.421.4+10.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Elijah HigginsTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA)2.13.3+1.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W7Cade StoverTE HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)1.32.5+1.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Mo Alie-CoxTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN)3.08.1+5.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN)3.56.6+3.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR)8.810.0+1.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Andrew OgletreeTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN)1.74.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Stone SmarttTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN)1.22.0+0.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)10.917.6+6.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Mo Alie-CoxTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX)2.011.7+9.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Foster MoreauTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC)3.19.3+6.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Juwan JohnsonTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC)4.18.1+4.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF)8.511.3+2.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT)10.913.0+2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Elijah HigginsTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF)3.87.2+3.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Brock BowersTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN)12.123.7+11.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT)0.84.0+3.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF)0.41.5+1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh OliverTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)2.39.0+6.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI)5.77.3+1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG)10.711.9+1.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT)2.64.9+2.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Mo Alie-CoxTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)2.53.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR)1.65.9+4.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Andrew OgletreeTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB)1.42.2+0.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Brock BowersTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL)6.418.8+12.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W1Josh OliverTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG)2.94.7+1.8❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 127 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse