Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 5.8 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 8.8 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 13.9 | 24.2 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 9.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 20.8 | 26.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 19.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 9.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.6 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 6.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 19.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 14.1 | +10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 21.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 2.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 8.8 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 14.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 6.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 4.2 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 21.6 | 27.7 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 38.8 | +22.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 2.2 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 15.3 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 13.1 | 22.7 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 3.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 14.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 12.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 4.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | 1.9 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.1 | 27.4 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 23.7 | 26.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.5 | 18.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 7.1 | 12.9 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | 7.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 9.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 26.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 5.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 11.7 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 1.3 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 12.5 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 3.3 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 10.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 18.5 | 31.8 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 8.7 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 16.5 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 23.0 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | 11.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 6.7 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 14.7 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 20.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 9.8 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 11.5 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 18.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | 1.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | 19.3 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 8.9 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 7.2 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse