Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Riley LeonardQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 0.8 | −16.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse