Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 14.2 | 19.9 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.5 | 16.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 3.0 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 11.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | 1.2 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.7 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 4.6 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 2.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 8.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 7.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 12.3 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 10.4 | 26.9 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 8.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 9.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 13.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 10.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 3.2 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse