Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
WR	339–194–34	63.6%	63.7%
RB	184–116–33	61.3%	61.8%
TE	177–120–58	59.6%	60.9%
QB	55–52–8	51.4%	50.4%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	375–246–68	60.4%	61.4%
0.25–0.5	380–236–65	61.7%	61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Matthew StaffordQB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2)	16.5	9.7	−6.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Davante AdamsWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	18.1	7.2	−10.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Nick VannettTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jared GoffQB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2)	20.1	20.5	+0.4	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler HigbeeTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)	7.7	11.7	+4.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Anthony FirkserTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	2.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	David NjokuTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Ross DwelleyTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Will DisslyTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler ConklinTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	2.6	0.0	−2.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Alec IngoldRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	3.1	0.0	−3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Tom KennedyWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.6	0.0	−1.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Giovanni RicciTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	0.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Colby ParkinsonTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Justin HerbertQB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2)	12.6	9.6	−3.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Shane ZylstraTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Brock WrightTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	2.5	1.8	−0.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jaret PattersonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Tutu AtwellWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	3.3	1.8	−1.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	19.8	15.5	−4.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jameson WilliamsWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	12.7	16.2	+3.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Tay MartinWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Ronnie RiversRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hassan HaskinsRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Tucker FiskTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Kyren WilliamsRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)	16.7	36.7	+20.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier SmithWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Keaton MitchellRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	3.7	11.3	+7.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Quentin JohnstonWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	9.5	5.0	−4.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Derius DavisWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	1.3	1.6	+0.3	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Scott MatlockRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Jacob SaylorsRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Malik CunninghamWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Sam LaPortaTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	11.8	22.4	+10.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Davis AllenTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)	3.5	0.0	−3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Puka NacuaWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	17.3	27.7	+10.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jahmyr GibbsRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)	26.5	17.7	−8.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Sione VakiRB DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)	4.9	2.7	−2.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Kimani VidalRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	3.4	11.6	+8.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Hayden RucciTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	0.3	0.0	−0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Blake CorumRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)	7.7	3.1	−4.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	1.8	1.4	−0.4	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ladd McConkeyWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	8.9	0.0	−8.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Amar JohnsonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	7.0	8.8	+1.8	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Dominic LovettWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Patrick HerbertTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)	0.3	0.0	−0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Zach HortonTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jackson MeeksTE DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)	0.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Konata MumpfieldWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)	5.5	1.7	−3.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Omarion HamptonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)	10.2	13.3	+3.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Isaac TeSlaaWR DET	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)	5.7	13.5	+7.8	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Tre HarrisWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)	7.3	9.0	+1.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W3	Matthew StaffordQB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2)	14.4	20.9	+6.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Davante AdamsWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)	18.5	20.7	+2.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Nick VannettTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	C.J. HamRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Carson WentzQB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2)	14.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Tyler HigbeeTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)	4.0	20.2	+16.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Aaron JonesRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	14.6	14.2	−0.4	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	David NjokuTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Will DisslyTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	3.7	0.0	−3.7	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Alec IngoldRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	2.1	6.5	+4.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	T.J. HockensonTE MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)	8.5	3.1	−5.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Josh OliverTE MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)	3.4	0.0	−3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Colby ParkinsonTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)	6.3	0.0	−6.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Jauan JenningsWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	6.1	1.1	−5.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Justin JeffersonWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	15.4	5.2	−10.2	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Justin HerbertQB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2)	15.7	12.7	−3.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	DeeJay DallasRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	2.3	0.2	−2.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Jaret PattersonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Tutu AtwellWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)	3.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Ty ChandlerRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	3.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Jordan MasonRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	6.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Ronnie RiversRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Hassan HaskinsRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	1.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Tucker FiskTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Kyren WilliamsRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)	14.4	21.8	+7.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Xavier SmithWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)	3.3	0.0	−3.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Zavier ScottRB MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)	3.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Keaton MitchellRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	2.7	13.7	+11.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Quentin JohnstonWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	10.7	7.0	−3.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Derius DavisWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	1.7	0.0	−1.7	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Scott MatlockRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Ben SimsTE MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Jordan AddisonWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	8.7	20.0	+11.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Davis AllenTE LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)	2.6	3.9	+1.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Kimani VidalRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	3.9	3.0	−0.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Hayden RucciTE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)	0.6	0.0	−0.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Blake CorumRB LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)	6.9	3.5	−3.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)	2.5	0.0	−2.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Ladd McConkeyWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	11.7	10.6	−1.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Amar JohnsonRB LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Tai FeltonWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	0.9	0.0	−0.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)	7.1	0.0	−7.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Myles PriceWR MIN	Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)	0.9	6.0	+5.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC

Page 1 of 2 · 167 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse