Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 3.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 12.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 16.5 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | 11.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 9.8 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 11.5 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | 1.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 8.9 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 20.2 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 4.3 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 1.3 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 7.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 6.9 | 3.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 8.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 11.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.5 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 10.1 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 8.1 | 7.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 15.3 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 1.7 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 7.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 9.8 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 6.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | 7.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse