Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.1 | 5.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 22.9 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.6 | 36.4 | +18.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | 7.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 12.0 | 26.0 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.9 | 8.2 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 13.8 | 14.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.3 | 19.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.1 | 7.7 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.3 | 8.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.9 | 8.7 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.8 | 9.6 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | 13.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.6 | 15.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 4.0 | 13.8 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 6.6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 18.5 | 21.9 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 6.8 | 17.1 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.3 | 15.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.5 | 17.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.0 | 3.2 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.5 | 8.5 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 7.4 | 13.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.7 | 21.2 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.1 | 30.2 | +18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 13.2 | 19.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 11.2 | 18.0 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 15.2 | 21.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 4.9 | 7.5 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 7.2 | 10.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.3 | 7.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.0 | 14.5 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.3 | 5.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 9.4 | 30.2 | +20.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.6 | 4.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.7 | 27.8 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | 10.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | 2.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 16.1 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.1 | 11.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 8.2 | 10.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 8.5 | 15.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 12.0 | 19.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.5 | 2.1 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.0 | 15.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.3 | 9.2 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 4.5 | 5.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.5 | 5.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 7.7 | 27.4 | +19.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 13.0 | 21.4 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.9 | 5.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 12.2 | 18.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.4 | 8.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 11.4 | 12.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.9 | 4.2 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse