Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 2.1 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 5.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 14.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 4.5 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 4.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 5.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 14.1 | 9.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 8.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 0.0 | −16.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 16.0 | 22.4 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 19.4 | 20.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 10.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 15.7 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 6.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 17.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 8.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 10.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 7.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 8.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 1.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 40.9 | +33.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 4.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 5.4 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 18.3 | 22.8 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 4.1 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 7.4 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 1.5 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 4.9 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 14.5 | 22.6 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 19.0 | 27.6 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 6.2 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 2.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 18.7 | 17.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 14.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 15.7 | 18.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tim JonesWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse