Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 7.3 | 10.6 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 8.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 20.3 | 0.7 | −19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 16.2 | 15.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 6.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.9 | 1.4 | −16.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 17.8 | 24.9 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 16.2 | 13.4 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.8 | 1.9 | −15.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 0.7 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.7 | 2.6 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 11.8 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 5.0 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 4.4 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 12.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 2.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 4.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 21.6 | 22.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 16.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 6.3 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 18.5 | 25.9 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 7.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 15.6 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 0.3 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 25 · 2,492 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse