Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.9 | 10.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.3 | 19.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.7 | 4.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 10.9 | 17.6 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 3.2 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.1 | 11.4 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.4 | 18.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 10.6 | 19.5 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 16.6 | 18.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.6 | 26.6 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.9 | 12.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 4.4 | 14.1 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 14.9 | 16.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 11.7 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 9.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.9 | 24.1 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.1 | 8.1 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.8 | 14.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 2.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 11.3 | 18.3 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.2 | 8.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 10.9 | 18.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 8.3 | 22.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.4 | 21.7 | +14.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 8.5 | 11.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.2 | 8.4 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 10.9 | 13.0 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 9.1 | 12.8 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.1 | 3.4 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.8 | 15.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.8 | 7.2 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.8 | 4.0 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.4 | 1.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 4.9 | 9.2 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.5 | 17.9 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.3 | 9.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 8.2 | 13.1 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.7 | 7.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.6 | 12.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.9 | 2.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 16.8 | 20.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 10.7 | 11.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | 4.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.3 | 22.9 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.1 | 12.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | 4.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.7 | 2.7 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.7 | 12.4 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 13.5 | 17.5 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Davante AdamsWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 11.6 | 26.0 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.6 | 5.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 10.7 | 12.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.2 | 20.1 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.6 | 17.8 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 11.5 | 17.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 6.2 | 7.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.1 | 16.6 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 6.0 | 6.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.2 | 22.1 | +15.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 6.4 | 18.8 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 14.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 14.2 | 18.9 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 12.8 | 19.3 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 4.7 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 4.6 | 11.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.3 | 9.1 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.9 | 6.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.4 | 2.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.8 | 3.8 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 5 of 5 · 482 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse