Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W3 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 4.9 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 15.8 | 10.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 2.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 10.9 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 19.3 | 15.7 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 18.7 | 17.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 9.8 | 4.5 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 4.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 1.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | 8.3 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 14.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tim JonesWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 22.6 | 8.5 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 6.0 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 1.0 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 7.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 26.0 | 15.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 15.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.8 | 3.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.8 | 6.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.4 | 3.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.0 | 5.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.7 | 2.3 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | 1.5 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 10.3 | 6.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 8.2 | 3.7 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 9.5 | 8.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 5.4 | 4.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.9 | 9.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.5 | 2.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.2 | 5.2 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.3 | 2.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.5 | 1.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 14.6 | 12.3 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.1 | 2.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.6 | 3.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 0.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 2.2 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 19.7 | 19.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse