Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 20.3 | 8.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 8.8 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | 8.8 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 12.5 | 3.6 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 0.0 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 0.5 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 9.5 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | 9.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 12.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 5.6 | 1.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 1.7 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | 0.9 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 9.8 | 4.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 13.9 | 24.2 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.7 | 2.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 20.9 | 6.2 | −14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 0.0 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 3.2 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 4.3 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 9.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 2.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 11.8 | 6.1 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | 6.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 2.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.5) | 20.8 | 26.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 19.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 9.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 7.6 | 6.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse